Earthquakes

Magnitude 5+ Earthquakes – Global

5.8 Earthquake hits south of Fiji.

5.8 Earthquake hits the Bougainville region, Papua New Guinea.

5.2 Earthquake hits Leyte in the Philippines.

5.0 Earthquake hits Mindanao in the Philippines.

Drought

Drought – and Other Disasters – in Argentina

Argentina’s agriculture, livestock and fishing ministry has declared four provinces to be in a state of agricultural emergency due to drought, storms, hail and frost. Argentina’s drought has become “critical” in almost all of the country’s northern oilseed and grain growing regions, with risks to crop forecasts for soybeans and sunflowers.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms

In the Atlantic:

Tropical storm Lorenzo is located about 830 mi. (1335 km) Eastt of Bermuda. Expected to weaken soon.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo, was born on Monday afternoon. Lorenzo’s formation brings this year’s Atlantic tally to 12 named storms, which is one more than the long term average. However, Lorenzo is going to be one of those weak, short-lived tropical storms that likely would have been missed before satellites came along in the 1960s. The storm will not be a threat to any land areas.

In the Western Pacific

Typhoon Francisco is located approximately 291 nm southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan.

Typhoon Francisco has steadily weakened since becoming Earth’s third Category 5 storm of 2013 on Saturday, and is now a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds. Francisco is now traversing a large cool patch of ocean up to 2°C colder than the surrounding waters, left behind by the churning action of Typhoon Wipha last week.

By the time Francisco makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday and Friday, it will be a tropical storm undergoing transition to an extratropical storm. However, the latest computer model guidance keeps Francisco well offshore from Japan, and the storm’s heaviest rains will miss the country.

Super Typhoon Lekima is located approximately 580 nm east -northeast of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.

Typhoon Lekima is an impressive Category 4 typhoon with 145 mph winds, intensifying over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 1,500 miles southeast of Japan. Satellite loops show that Lekima is another very well-organized typhoon with a prominent eye surrounded by a solid ring of eyewall clouds with very cold cloud tops. Lekima is predicted to reach Category 5 strength on Thursday, but will likely recurve to the northeast without affecting any land areas.

In the Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Raymond is located about 140 mi (225 km) WSW of Acapulco, Mexico. Still parked off the coast of southern Mexico.

Hurricane Raymond weakens, but still drenching Mexico – Hurricane Raymond continues to spin just offshore of Acapulco, Mexico, as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. As of 11 am EDT Tuesday, Raymond was stationary, centred about 135 miles west-southwest of Acapulco. Raymond brought 5.67″ of rain Saturday through Monday to Acapulco, where a Hurricane Watch is posted.

Raymond is expected to bring heavy rains of up to 12″ to the coast, and this is an area where heavy rains are definitely most unwelcome. Hurricane Manuel hit this region of Mexico with extreme torrential rains when it made landfall on September 15, triggering deadly mudslides and flooding that left 169 people dead or missing and caused $4.2 billion in damage. Raymond is in an area with weak steering currents, and is likely to show some erratic movement until today, when a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in and force the storm west-southwestwards, away from the coast. Recent satellite loops show a weakening trend, as the southeast eyewall is now missing, and the storm’s heavy thunderstorms have diminished in intensity. This weakening may be due to the colder waters from below that Raymond’s winds have churned to the surface.

Wildfires

Wildfires – Australia

The threat of bushfires has eased in the Blue Mountains and Southern Highlands of New South Wales. But authorities expect that to change within 24 hours with updated weather forecasts labelled ‘as bad as it gets’.

Volcanos

Roundup of Global Volcanic Activity:

Stromboli (Eolian Islands, Italy): According to the local mountain guides from Magmatrek, activity has increased significantly during the past 3 days, especially at the NW vent. A group of VolcanoDiscovery has arrived on the island and will report in more detail in the following days.

Etna (Sicily, Italy): After about 10 days of near complete quiet, a faint red glow was observed early on 22 Oct at the New SE crater. The origin of the glow seems to have been increased degassing from the summit vent and the at the fumaroles in the saddle between the old and New SE cone.

Karymsky (Kamchatka): An explosion yesterday produced an ash plume rising to 7,000 ft (2.1 km) and drifting SE, VAAC Tokyo reported.

Ibu (Halmahera, Indonesia): Hot spots at the summit have become larger and more frequently observed on recent MODIS satellite data. This indicates that activity has become more intense at the volcano with its active lava dome.

Dukono (Halmahera): The semi-persistent explosive activity of strombolian to vulcanian type has been at elevated levels recently. The volcano produced ash plumes rising to 9,000 ft (2.7 km) altitude yesterday as well as this morning. Our friend Aris reported from a recent visit to the volcano that bombs during this activity were ejected to up to 1.5 km distance from the active crater.

Veniaminof (Alaska Peninsula, USA): No new eruptive activity has been observed recently and MODIS satellite data no longer show hot spots. Seismicity remains above background levels, and AVO maintains alert level yellow.