Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms – Roundup of Tropical Storms:

Tropical Depression Nora is located about 280 mi…445 km se of Hilo Hawaii with maximum sustained winds…30 mph…45 km/h. Present movement…NW or 320 degrees at 7 mph…11 km/h.

Tropical Storm Koppu is located approximately 516 nm south-southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan and is tracking westward at 14 knots.

Tropical Storm Champi is located approximately 218 nm east-northeast of Saipan, and is tracking westward at 16 knots.

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is located about 1080 mi…1740 km SW of the southern tip of Baja California with maximum sustained winds…35 mph…55 km/h. Present movement…W or 270 degrees at 13 mph…20 km/h.

Gl anom mm

Global Warming

The US cities that will stay above sea level after global warming—and the ones that will disappear

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We’ve all heard doomsday predictions about what global warming means for coastal US cities. And now a new, interactive map from nonprofit climate science publication Climate Central illustrates precisely how American cities will fare under the best and worst possible climate futures—and which ones will disappear completely.

Climate Central is not the first group to visualize how the US landscape will be altered, but as Wired notes, this map draws on new research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (pdf) that ties carbon dioxide levels to sea level rise and layers in topography and population statistics.

The report doesn’t unearth exactly when water will begin flowing into coastal cities, but notes that our current carbon emissions will lock in changes that could start occurring in as early as 2200. (Even if we stopped burning fossil fuels today, carbon pollution already in the atmosphere would be high enough to register an effect for years to come.)

The map uses four different scenarios laid out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the best case, aggressive cuts would cause carbon emissions to peak within the next five years; in the worst case, pollution goes unchecked and emissions continue climbing through the year 2100.

Most of New Orleans will disappear even in the best climate future. Even with aggressive carbon cuts, cities like Miami and Jacksonville, Florida, could lose more than half their land. New York and Boston are in danger of shrinking by a quarter.

New Orleans, meanwhile, is pretty much doomed any way you look at it. All of the city’s population-weighted area, based on 2010 US Census data, is expected to fall below future sea levels if pollution goes unchecked or only minor carbon cuts are implemented. With aggressive cuts, still more than half of the area currently populated will go under water. That’s also true for parts of Florida, including Cape Coral, Miami Gardens, and Hollywood.

If triggered, the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) covering a portion of Antarctica could leave tens of thousands of more Americans without dry land, even with extreme carbon cuts.

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Roundup of Global Volcanic Activity

Batu Tara (Sunda Islands, Indonesia): VAAC Darwin spotted an ash plume at 7,000 ft (2.1 km) drifting 80 km west from the volcano this morning.

Reports from Batu Tara have become more frequent, recently, suggesting that activity is intense.

Dukono (Halmahera): Ash emissions remain intense. A plume was reported extending 50 nautical miles to the NE from the volcano this morning.

Cleveland (Aleutian Islands, Alaska): Unrest at the volcano has decreased and the Alaska Volcano Observatory lowered the alert level down to Yellow: Strongly elevated surface temperatures have not been observed at Cleveland since August 18. Moderately elevated surface temperatures have been observed with decreasing regularity since then, with the most recent instance occurring on September 30. This indicates lava effusion at the summit has likely ceased. In addition, explosive activity, as detected by infrasound, last occurred over two months ago on August 6. Based on the decline in activity, we are lowering the Level of Concern Colour Code to YELLOW and the Alert Level to ADVISORY.