Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms

In the Atlantic:

The NHC downgraded Lorenzo to a remnant low.

The American GFS model in its latest run shows a strong hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico on November 9 heading toward the U.S. coast. The development and movement of the hurricane up from the southwest Caribbean coincides with the change in the resolution the model uses in its forecasts beyond 8 days.

Howling winds aloft across the Gulf of Mexico into the central Atlantic will prevent any development for at least the next few days.

In the Western Pacific

Heavy rain continues being produced by Francisco (now downgraded wind-wise from a typhoon to a tropical storm) and its circulation/moisture interacting with a stationary front to its northwest (details were different but there was a similar setup recently with Wipha). Ikegawa in southern Japan has measured 17″ of rain in the past 24 hours and nearby Torigatayama has measured 16.5″.

Moisture from Lekima is going to start getting involved too, as the triumvirate of it, Francisco, and the non-tropical system all interact with each other and the storms weaken and become non-tropical, but also that front is going to accelerate eastward as a cold front, and the whole conglomeration is going to exit, and the duration of heavy rain is not expected to be as long in northern Japan as it has been in the southern part.

Lekima is no longer a super typhoon and will continue to weaken.

In the Eastern Pacific:

Raymond is heading west, taking its rain with it, and much weaker than it had been. For a while there was even some question whether Raymond’s surface circulation still had a well-defined centre or had opened up to a tropical wave; it now appears to be reorganising and recent satellite-derived wind estimates suggest Raymond still has a “closed” (fully circular) circulation. Raymond has strengthened, but it’s no longer a direct threat to land.

Models differ as to whether a bit of its moisture might eventually get picked up by the flow aloft and reach the U.S.

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