Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms – Roundup of Tropical Storms:

In the Southern Hemisphere: Tropical cyclone (tc) 27s (Mangga), located approximately 900 nm west-northwest of Learmonth, Australia, is tracking southeastward at 24 knots.

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NewsBytes:

Indonesia – A rare tornado ripped through several villages on Indonesia’s Sumatra island, killing at least two people and damaging around 245 homes. The tornado touched down in Lampung province’s Tulang Bawang district.

El Niño – The U.S. weather agency predicts a 65% chance that neither an El Niño nor a La Niña will form this Northern Hemisphere summer. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center says that such neutral conditions typically bring more average wind, rainfall and temperature patterns than the weather disruptions brought on by unusually warmer or cooler waters across the tropical Pacific. The last El Niño warming developed in 2018 and was linked to disastrous firestorms, flash floods and crop damage in various areas of the planet.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms – Roundup of Tropical Storms:

In the Indian Ocean: Tropical cyclone (tc) 06a (Pawan), located approximately 550 nm south of Salalah, Oman, is tracking west-southwestward at 05 knots.

In the Southern Hemisphere: Tropical cyclone 03s (Ambali), located approximately 642 nm north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius, is tracking south-southwestward at 06 knots.

Tropical cyclone 02s (Belna), located approximately 847 nm north-northwest of St Denis, is tracking southwestward at 07 knots.

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NewsBytes:

Burundi – A landslide triggered by heavy rainfall has claimed the lives of 38 people in the Cibitoke province of northwestern Burundi. Out of total fatalities, 22 people died in Nyuempundu, 13 in Rukombe hill and three in Gikomero.

DR Congo – Heavy rain has flooded 10 provinces in the DRC, with more wet conditions forecast over the coming days. Nord and Sud Ubangui are among the most affected provinces and are also host to more than 130,000 Central African refugees. 260,000 people are affected in these two provinces, with an estimated 35,000 houses and 100 schools or health centres damaged or destroyed and 700 water points flooded.

La Nada

The U.N. weather agency said that neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions will emerge across the tropical Pacific Ocean during the next few months, but that doesn’t mean the world won’t experience freak and extreme weather.

World Meteorological Organization spokeswoman Clare Nullis told reporters that neutral ocean-temperature conditions will prevail through February.

Global Warming

Climate change making stronger El Ninos

Climate change is making stronger El Ninos, which change weather worldwide and heat up an already warming planet, a new study finds.

Scientists examined 33 El Ninos — natural warming of equatorial Pacific that triggers weather extremes across the globe — since 1901. They found since the 1970s, El Ninos have been forming farther to the west in warmer waters, leading to stronger El Ninos in some cases.

A powerful El Nino can trigger drought in some places, like Australia and India. And it can cause flooding in other areas like California. The Pacific gets more hurricanes during an El Nino and the Atlantic gets fewer.

The shift for the origin of El Nino by hundreds of miles from the east of the International Dateline to the west of that point is important because the water to the west is naturally warmer.

Before 1978, 12 of the 14 El Ninos formed in the east. After 1978, all 11 were more central or western, according a study in Monday’s Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

There have been three “super” El Ninos, starting in 1982, 1997 and 2015 and all started in the west. During each of those El Ninos, the world broke new average temperature records.

Ozone Hole Shrinks

Abnormal weather patterns in the upper atmosphere over Antarctica dramatically limited ozone depletion in September and October. This resulted in the smallest ozone hole observed since 1982, NASA and NOAA scientists said.

Endangered Antarctic Glacier Could Soon Calve a Massive New Iceberg

Two cracks are growing in western Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier, and they are an ominous warning that major ice loss is on the way. Two large rifts have widened near the edge of Pine Island Glacier on the West Antarctic ice sheet. If they continue to grow, they could release an iceberg four times bigger than Manhattan.

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Disease

Measles – Madagascar – Update

In a follow-up on the measles outbreak on the island country of Madagascar, UNICEF reports from 3 September to 21 February, 76,871 people were infected by measles and 928 died, a majority of which were children.

Dengue Fever – Peru

The Regional Health Office–Geresa has reported 33 confirmed cases of dengue in several localities of Lambayeque this year.

El Niño caused global disease outbreaks

Between 2015 and 2016, the weather phenomenon known as El Niño inadvertently set off a chain of events that led to global disease outbreaks.

But during the 2015-2016 event, NASA’s researchers found that El Niño changed precipitation, land surface temperatures and vegetation, facilitating conditions for the transmission of diseases. The aftermath resulted in a surge of reported cases for plague and hantavirus in the US states of Colorado and New Mexico; cholera in Tanzania; and dengue fever in Brazil and south-east Asia, among others. These findings are the first to comprehensively show the public health impacts of a major climate event on a global scale.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms – Roundup of Tropical Storms:

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In the Southern Hemisphere: Tropical cyclone (tc) 15p (Oma), located approximately 286 nm west of Noumea, New Caledonia, is tracking south-southwestward at 04 knots.

In the Western Pacific Ocean: Tropical depression 02w (Wutip), located approximately 742 nm southeast of Andersen AFB, Guam, is tracking westward at 10 knots.

NewsBytes:

Malaysia – A downpour that lasted for about two hours caused flash floods to hit several parts in the city centre in Johor Baru. The rain caused water levels to increase rapidly at major roads, resulting in traffic congestion.

El Nino Underway

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an El Nino Advisory last week, indicating the climate pattern has taken effect. While sea surface temperatures are above average, current observations and climate models indicate that this El Nino will be weak, meaning we do not expect significant global impacts through the remainder of winter and into the spring.

Global Warming

Climate Change will Strengthen El Niños

El Niños will be stronger and more frequent in the decades ahead because of global warming, causing “more extreme events” in the United States and around the world, a study said Wednesday.

A natural phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average seawater in the tropical Pacific Ocean, El Niño is Earth’s most influential climate pattern. A weak one is forecast to form at some point this winter, scientists have said.

Rather than once every 15 years, powerful El Niños will occur roughly once every 10 years. They found that the physical processes in the ocean and atmosphere that produce strong El Niños will be supercharged by human-caused climate change.

The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which swings between warmer and cooler seawater in the tropical Pacific. Cooler-than-average ocean water is known as La Niña. The cycle is the primary factor government scientists consider when announcing their winter weather forecast.

Strong El Niños can lead to floods in the western United States, Ecuador and northeast Peru and to droughts in nations that border the western Pacific Ocean, the study finds.

During extreme El Niños, marine life in the eastern Pacific can die off, and mass bleaching of corals across the Pacific and beyond can occur.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms – Roundup of Tropical Storms:

There are no current tropical storms.

NewsBytes:

Tunisia – Tunisian authorities say at least five people have been killed in flash floods in the country caused by heavy rains Wednesday and Thursday. Two other people are missing.

The regions of Bizerte in the north, and of Nabeul, about 70 kilometers (45 miles) east of the capital, received up to 200 millimeters (almost 8 inches) of rainfall. Some schools have been closed and homes, roads and hydro-electric power facilities along rivers have been severely damaged.

Texas, USA – Two people have died in flooding in Central Texas that caused a bridge to collapse. Heavy rains led to flooding where the Llano River and the Colorado River meet in Kingsland, Texas. Flood waters rushed over the 2900 bridge for hours before it collapsed.

El Niño Emerging?

The U.S. environment agency NOAA predicts there is now a 70 to 75 percent chance that the weather-altering ocean warming in the Pacific known as El Niño will develop during the next several weeks.

Observations seem to show an ocean-surface warming emerging in the eastern tropical Pacific during the past few weeks off the coast of Ecuador.

The last El Niño triggered crop damage, fires and flash floods in various parts of the world when it occurred from 2015 to 2016.

Environment

El Niño Return?

Weather agencies around the world predict there is a 60 to 70 percent chance the weather-altering phenomenon El Niño will emerge during the next two months.

The last time the ocean-warming stretched across the tropical Pacific was in late 2015 into 2016.

It was among the strongest on record and caused weather-related crop damage, wildfires and disastrous flooding in various parts of the planet. But researchers say they don’t expect the new one to be as intense.

A recent study predicts that climate change is altering the dynamics of both El Niño and its ocean-cooling counterpart, La Niña, making their weather impacts more severe as the planet warms.

Global Warming

Global warming is intensifying El Niño weather

As humans put more and more heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, the Earth warms. And the warming is causing changes that might surprise us. Not only is the warming causing long-term trends in heat, sea level rise, ice loss, etc.; it’s also making our weather more variable. It’s making otherwise natural cycles of weather more powerful.

Perhaps the most important natural fluctuation in the Earth’s climate is the El Niño process. El Niño refers to a short-term period of warm ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, basically stretching from South America towards Australia. When an El Niño happens, that region is warmer than usual. If the counterpart La Niña occurs, the region is colder than usual. Often times, neither an El Niño or La Niña is present and the waters are a normal temperature. This would be called a “neutral” state.

The ocean waters switch back and forth between El Niño and La Niña every few years. Not regularly, like a pendulum, but there is a pattern of oscillation. And regardless of which part of the cycle we are in (El Niño or La Niña), there are consequences for weather around the world.

A new study just published in Geophysical Research Letters, has found that weather associated with El Niño events is becoming more severe. It means if you live in an area that is affected by an El Niño or La Niña, the effect is likely becoming magnified by climate change. For instance, consider California. There, El Niño brings cool temperatures with rains; La Niña brings heat and dry weather. Future El Niños will make flooding more likely while future La Niñas will bring more drought and intensified wildfire seasons.

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Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms – Roundup of Tropical Storms:

In the North Indian Ocean: Tropical cyclone 01a (Sagar), located approximately 89 nm southeast of Aden, Yemen, is tracking west-southwestward at 06 knots.

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El Niño Outlook

 

The recent La Niña ocean cooling across the tropical Pacific may be replaced toward the end of this year by an El Niño warming, which could bring its own set of weather disruptions. The U.S. agency NOAA predicts there is a 50 percent chance El Niño will return by the 2018-19 Northern Hemisphere winter. The last El Niño was linked to crop damage, deadly wildfires and flash floods during 2016.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms – Roundup of Tropical Storms:

In the North Indian Ocean: Tropical cyclone 01a (Sagar), located approximately 89 nm southeast of Aden, Yemen, is tracking west-southwestward at 06 knots.

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El Niño Outlook

 

The recent La Niña ocean cooling across the tropical Pacific may be replaced toward the end of this year by an El Niño warming, which could bring its own set of weather disruptions. The U.S. agency NOAA predicts there is a 50 percent chance El Niño will return by the 2018-19 Northern Hemisphere winter. The last El Niño was linked to crop damage, deadly wildfires and flash floods during 2016.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms – Roundup of Tropical Storms:

In the South Pacific: Tropical cyclone 18p (Donna), located approximately 302 nm north-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu, is tracking west-southwestward at 06 knots.

NewsBytes:

El Niño – Forecasters at the World Meteorological Organization predict there is a 50 to 60 percent chance that the weather-altering El Niño ocean warming will develop across the Pacific this year. The previous El Niño ended just last year, and it is unusual for the phenomenon to return so quickly.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms – Roundup of Tropical Storms:

No current tropical storms.

Newsbytes:

Switzerland – Torrential rain, thunderstorms and flash floods have inundated towns and villages, especially in parts of northwest, central and eastern Switzerland.

France – An international team of scientists has found that man-made climate change nearly doubled the likelihood of last month’s devastating French flooding.

El Niño – El Niño is dead, scientists declared Thursday. It was 17 months old. The infamous climate pattern defined by warmer-than-average Pacific Ocean water is likely to be succeeded by its cooler kid sister, La Niña. Developing from a small patch of warm water in the Pacific Ocean, this El Niño grew to among the largest ever recorded as it shaped weather around the world.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms – Roundup of Tropical Storms:

No current tropical storms.

NewsBytes:

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Ethiopia – At least 50 people have been killed in flooding and landslide caused by heavy rains in Ethiopia. Some 41 people died in Wolayita Zone in southern Ethiopia on Monday because of the landslide. Reports said that nine others were also killed in the Bale region in southeastern Ethiopia following the flooding. Over 1,000 cattle also reportedly drowned in the area. Tens of thousands of people have been affected by heavy the rains in several parts of the country. A number of roads have been washed away and bridges destroyed. The African country is struggling with its worst drought in decades, but unseasonable heavy rains have caused damage in several areas across the country.

El Niño – El Niño seen ending while chance of La Niña remains at 50%. The Pacific Ocean has cooled to near neutral levels over the past two weeks, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on Tuesday (May 10, 2016), as the end of the strongest El Niño weather patterns in nearly 20 years is coming closer.

Environment

Sea Levels Seesaw

Duelling climate cycles such as El Niño and La Niña are causing sea levels to wobble back and forth across the Pacific with increasing magnitude in conjunction with climate change, according to a new NASA study.

Variations in sea levels in the Pacific basin are now three times greater than those observed on average during the previous 30 years.

Asia is currently on the high side of the sea level sway, while coastlines in the Americas as far north as California are experiencing a lower sea level.

For communities threatened by rising tides, predicting when the seesaw will swing the other way is becoming more crucial. The NASA findings may help improve those predictions.